As students in High school or college we learned or the dire consequences of the 1920's of leverage buying of stocks on the assumption that the stocks could only go higher. Eventually it didn't go higher, and the value of stocks turned on a dime and retreated. It lead to a great depression of stock values that lasted for years. It is interesting that we can all look at that scenario today and ask how could it have ever happened? The stupid stock market! How could persons be so foolish to take such risk putting up a little money, and expecting such a big return. So what is different then about real estate flipping and investing? The problem is in perception...real estate is a different asset class that is viewed differently than stocks because it has land, it is tangible, and provides shelter. But the fundamentals of investment are not different. Whether or not we want to admit it, we have just lived through one of the greatest run ups in home buildings, and resales ever seen in the United States...and we are all hanging around to see when it will come back. Lets think of the national mindset we are in...
How could a buyer buy a home or real estate with little or nothing down, sell the home in a few months, make a profit and move on to the next deal? Is it really conceivable that this profit scenario would never end? This thinking works well on the upside, but no one is talking about what happens when a market flattens or worse yet, declines in value! What then? How does that impact real estate? It is one thing to ignore the events, but quite another to ignore the impact it will have. The impact is felt first in declining sales units, rising home inventory levels, longer days on market, a lowered List price / sales price ratio and eventually lowered sales prices. There is no way to peg a time-frame of events because there are so many variables. Local employment, absorption rates of competitive listings, and diminished sales. The impact moves beyond the individual into the neighborhood, and does not stop at the entrance of a subdivision. The effect goes far beyond...into falling local revenues, reassessments of property values etc...
The problem with looking at the big picture is that everyone tries to do it by looking at closed sales, or lagging statistics. Last months sales is not a way to determine where is this all going. It is sort of like driving a car using only the rear view mirror. It is not a totally good indicator of what is ahead. I think that the way this should be approached is with a mMore proactive approach. Realistic pricing is one way to do this, qualified buyers with 20% cash (Yes their own money in the deal), no drive by appraisals, oversight of the process, strong prosecution of fraud, and borrowers must have the ability to repay the loan they were given without any modification or refinance. Perhaps if we were acting like adults, things would never have gotten so crazy!.

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