Despite still historic lows in mortgage rate buyer demand is still actually pretty lean. There were a lot of surprised faces when new home sales suddenly shows an 11% drop in the last week. Unemployment never really abated as planned in the US when the "Cash for Clunkers" had more Americans buy foreign cars than American cars to the tune of 80%! (Even though foreign countries banned the purchase of cars not made in their own countries!) How absolutely foolish we were as a nation! Diminished auto inventory did not bring hoards of Americans back to work to the assembly lines as it was supposed to. Maybe in Japan or Korea workers were called back to work, but not here. 50% of those sold were Japanese. Sales plummeted as soon as the stimulus ended. No surprise here for a nation that just does not get the sense of urgency! This bailout was done in time of a national disaster, and most Americans turned their back on their nation and neighbors! I personally feel there are no excuses for this. I do not care what your MPG is on your Toyota! It does not help raise the standard of living here, and get more Americans off the unemployment rolls. Profits go overseas to a wholly owned foreign corporation.
The 8K credit was also too limited to work. Do you see the trickle up theory working? I don't! over 60% of national sales right now are distressed sales at the lower end of the price range. The average sales price trend nationally is still headed lower.
Also, loan modifications have many American reaffirming bad debts. Loan workouts and modifications contrary to belief are not designed to help the consumers, but rather the banks from failure. Home owners could modify their mortgage payments and get a lower monthly payment, but basically they are just reaffirming their bad debt. If a buyer appeared to buy their home, the home would not appraise. They are basically locked into their home and out of the move up market until the market comes back. This really does not help our industry. These are move up buyers that are locked into a time warp.
On another item, the mortgage rates are still at record lows but cannot stay there for long. They were meant to shore up the housing prices to help the banks with their bankrupt assets sheets. It did not do a great job. It did not stop falling home prices but slowed them. What remains to be seen is what will occur when prices start to rise in the second quarter. Will home prices start their plunge again? Will investors belly up to buy more homes at still cheaper prices? We cannot dismiss the conversation on mortgage rates. The change is pretty imminent. Mortgages have to rise for investment in our Government Bonds to finance the nation debt. The million dollar question is how high, and how quick? In 1981 I signed a contract for a new home to be built in December of 1980. Mortgage rates at that time were at 9.25%. By June they were at 15.5%. By the third quarter they were at 18%. Almost a 9% rise in 9 months. That was something I will never forget. A 70K mortgage PITI was $1570 a month! There is a correlation for mortgage rates that has never been wrong.
High Rates = Low Prices & Low Rates = High Prices
The above topics still does not take into account rising unemployment, increasing bank failures, rising taxes, still rising foreclosures, and bad commercial debt. There are a lot of unanswered questions as the government talks of TARP repayment, and pulling back on some key economic supports. The FDIC insurance fund is now in the red...and borrowing against the future.
So the question is simple...Are we really recovering, or is this smoke and mirrors?