Everyone quotes the Case Schiller Index as Gospel about declining home prices. It isn't. First of all, the Case Schiller index is quoting March's average sales price numbers as opposed to the most recent data in April! It really isn't worth mentioning it. Can you spell "O-L-D----D-A-T-A?" A month is a major lag time in this economy. The most recent case Schiller Index for Atlanta (5/26/2009) quotes the average sales price for Atlanta homes sold in Atlanta as an average of metro prices have fallen-15.7% percent year-to-year. However, these are an average of all housing types. There are major differences in sales between classes of homes...single family and detached. Detached single family homes represent the largest segment of homes sold.
Our FMLS statistics were just released for April 2009 home sales, and they paint a slightly different picture. Even though the average price has jumped 10K higher than March 2009 sales..the trend is unmistakeably down in price over 20% from last year. Where most persons look at is price, but the number of homes sold in referenced to previous periods, the number of homes sold in way off, and I will address in a future post.
Where Case Schiller focuses on an average decline in prices of all housing and quotes a 15.7% drop in value for month old data the reality is worse at 20% drop in value.
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Jim,
I agree with your analysis! If you try to paint with too broad a brush, you will not get a true 'feel' for present market values or condition...even with declining values some segments and categories have continued to rise in value or hold their own...! Thanks, Fran
Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.) These national indexes try to paint an a national average. They cannot. Some areas will hold there own, some will be worse off than others, and most of all their numbers are backward looking...it does not give you a real trend.
Jim,
As far as I know, the best way to get an accurate picture of prices in a given city is to contact your local real estate agent and get some comps. These national reports are glossy but outdated.
I don't put too much stock into past appreciation as it is not an indicator of future appreciation. I favor looking at the supply and demand for real estate, the month's supply of housing. Unfortunately that number does not look very good either when compared to last year.
Esko Kiuru - Las Vegas NV Mortgage Consultant (Sinifox Financial) The sad thing is that our MLS does provide excellent statistics, and most agents never use them.
Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning The number of homes for sale has dropped in Atlanta, but so has the number of sales. I am starting to believe that there is a very large shadow inventory building.