It's very interesting when you read real estate Blogs or business news these days when they talk about the market recovery. One month of improved sales does not mean a bottom has been hit and we are on the road to recovery. Yes increased activity at open homes could be signs of the market picking up, and it can also be the spring markets were so anemic this year that any activity looks good. I have followed real estate statistics for some time now in several markets. The amazing things is that yes... sales are up, but compared to previous years they are way off their peaks. Sales are off by as much as 50% in some markets, and prices are substantially lower. I know that many homeowners are not doing cartwheels that the numbers of sales are up but that their home is worth a 100K less than 2 years ago. What we all need to see in our real estate markets is many months of back to back increases in sales and price stabilization. Other than that a few months do not constitute a trend. It's just wishful thinking.
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This is painful information that a lot of people don't want to hear or admit to. I also think that a lot of people don't recognize that the bigger problem that the real estate market has and that is the excess supply of homes. Until those get absorbed, home values will fall like a stone.
Even if home sales are up 5% from last year, if the supply of homes are up 15%, you have a problem.
Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning I agree. Even though real estate is local seeing the "Big Picture" is a must!
Hello Jim, I'm seeing similar action out here in Washington. I think we are building a base, yet still in a fragile time with much variability still possible. John
Alexander-Slocum REMAX Team - Vancouver WA Real Estate (RE/MAX equity group, inc. - Vancouver Washington) I agree....there are loads of variables, but the base must be built first.
I look for at least three months going in the same direction, and I consider 5% (o less) up or down to be stable, not indicating a trend.
Margaret Woda, Maryland Real Estate (Long and Foster, Crofton Real Estate) I can agree with that. In the 1970's America saw stagflation...there were no clear indicators up or down....the drift was sideways and then became inflationary. That is worrisome. Most economist would look for at least 6 months of back to back improvements before calling the market.
Jim,
The real estate market got so hammered in many areas that the ensuing recovery will be bumpy. It likely will be one of these stops and starts type of thing, instead of a smooth forward motion.