Atlanta Real Estate | Atlanta Housing News for Real Estate

LOL  The media should be put in a huge straight jacket.  One day we are IN a recession.  Two days later, we are NOT.  Homes sales are up, homes sales are declining.  Who are we to believe.  I just gotta go day by day.. Have a great one!

Hi Jim.  The stock market seems to be on the "recession over" bandwagon as well given it's closing today over 10,000.  I'm amazed at how fast it has risen and only wish I had been part of it.

Jim - Isn't it nice to know that all we have to do is rely on these so-called experts and media sources to let us know that happy days are here again? LOL!  I don't know what world they're living in when they are pushing this type of propaganda.

I have already begun to unload stocks bought in Mar, Apr, & May. I believe I will be buying it back much cheaper soon. Still, I'll never complain about going well past a double. The next real dip may not go as deep but will certainly not recover any where near as quickly. Anyone that thinks       obama-care and 'cap & trade' will not bring the economy to it's knees for a very long time is not paying attention.

Jean Hanley (Allison James Estates and Homes)  I sometimes think about all the economist that said there was no housing bubble.  I also remember Greenspan, and Bernake in front to Congress saying the chances of a recession were remote.  These were also the same ones that share that there was no problem with "Sub-Prime" because they represented so few loans.  I think the economist need to go out and get a real job because they obviously do not understand work.  Ow wait a minute...there are no jobs for them...

Richard T Dolbeare (RA), ABR, CRS, RSPS, BS/MS - Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today (Keller Williams Realty)  From what I've been reading there will be a good change to get back in when it corrects.  They are calling it the "New Dow Bubble!"  It went up way too fast, too quick, and there is just no substance to account for those gains.

Donna, that is exactly what it is.  Propaganda.

John Rakoci North Myrtle Beach Coastal Carolinas (Eagle Realty)  It is amazing how any independent news seem to threaten the powers that be.  This is not the change I want.

Hi Jim..Rising crude prices is not a good sign, in the past interest rates followed Crude up.

Cheers

Positive thinking brings happy results but. I'm not  really sure how the DOW can hit 10,000 and millions of people unemployed? 

Jim  You really have to stop being so accurate :)  Karen

Thanks for the announcement Jim.  I'm glad to hear it.  I heard rumors via Larry Sommers that the recession was ending. 

I just didn't focus on it because the stock market was going up.  After all, the stock market IS the economy, isn't it??

It's clear that the government's spokespersons use the same phylosophy as many real estate practitioners, "Think happy thoughts and good things will happen."

Now, that is a plan for managing the U.S. economy.

 

It's all happy talk. I don't know where they expect the money to come from for increased consumer spending. People are spending less because they have less.  No more equity in their homes. Credit card interest rates at 29%.  I don't know what's going to happen but I say that we are far from this recession being over.

I started to see comments a few weeks ago in the Canadian media that the Canadian recession had ended too. 

Normal Vincent Peale was a great preacher and author, but was never considered for secretary of the treasury. Positive thoughts alone won't create prosperity. Like Reagan said, if you lose your job, it is a depression. 

hahaha, yes I have stopped paying attention to most Media a long time ago. I'd rather focus on following indicators...Anyway..if they said it, it must be true....:)

I still think we have a bumpy road ahead. I think the government wants a few of us to go out and spend some money.

We now find, with the invention of the internet that the Real Estate market can change on a dime.  We've seen the Stock market change on a dime (many times). 

But the Job market?  It's a slow moving market that has picked up too much speed....It will not change on a dime....it will slow down....stop...and then slowlyyyyyy move in the other direction.

Jim...I'd love your secret for the pen writing signature....AWESOME!!

B.S. The Government talks out of both sides of its mouth. More tent cities, more unemployment... give me a break.

On another subject, I'm looking forward to seeing you in Bar Camp in RDU.

Jim:

It's a great psychological boost to see the Dow go back up to over 10,000 but I think it is a temporary lift in spirits. The unemployment rate is the key factor right now and it is not good.

 

I am thrilled to hear that the recession is over. I would not have believed it if it were just in the news, but is on Active Rain, so it must be over. I can't wait to tell everybody. Today is going to be GREAT!  ;-)

Hope it's not along the story line of the children's book, "The Emperor's New Clothes".  Maybe the emperor really does have clothes on.

By defintion, isn't a recession when we have 5 consecutive months of a reduction in the GDP? I haven't heard anyone say that we have crossed that threshold yet. There are certainly a lot of people out of work still.

Jim, apparently news reporting is dominated by a cheering section for the Administration rather than by any objective measure.

Jim,

I love the masterful use of language by our politicians. We're having a "jobless recovery." Wow, tell that to the 10% unemployed. I'm sure they'll feel good about the recovery aspect.

I don't think that the American public is fooled by all the "experts." It is very difficult out there for so many and we're not seeing the end any time soon.

Rich

Hi Jim, the stock market is a leading indicator. It looks forward. The American dollar is cheap and foreigners are buying our stocks at a nice discount. That accounts for the market going up, despite all the bad economic news domestically. The job market is a lagging indicator. Even if the recession is over, it will take companies a while to start hiring again. I do think we are over the worst of the recession, but we have a ways to go before the average person feels confident again. I'm afraid we are going to have high unemployment for several more years. We just keep squeezing more productivity out of those that are employed.

Jim,

Believe everything you read, isn't that how the saying goes?  I'm sure they've got it right this time.

Jim, I would love to agree with you, but I have to admit that everything that I have heard says that this will be a slow recovery and we are not going to get out of it right away, but there are some issues required to get us out of the mess. I have to say I know we are not out of it yet, but I have seen signs of hope! Thanks for the post.

The stock market may be rising and oil prices may be increasing, but consumer confidence is slow to come back and I'm seeing too many homes still going to foreclosure.  I agree with you....it's all propaganda.

Jim - I can hear the "fiddle" playing !!!! Well it worked in the fairy tales anyway. I do believe Millie has identified the core issue. Most of my clients are paying CASH for property and they are not Americans , or they are First Generation and the money is being wired in from their homeland. I am quite sure they are also investing in our stocks as well causing the increase in the DJIA

Jim,

 

Many jobs in the auto industry have been lost forever. The mere fact that the losses have now stabilized does not mean that we are in for great prosperity, at least in the short term.

 

Brian

Oh good!  Now I can go buy that new car and home I've always dreamed of!  I wonder how the media will be spinning this a year from now?

I actually think that some of the pending government action may take us back a few steps. And the loss of jobs will mean the recession (or slow, imperceptible recovery) will take a good while. It is just the joy at seeing the 10k mark on the Dow and the thought that incentive boosted spending means a bottom reached.

It may be that the large tax refund checks for those receiving the FTHB incentive will give a significant boost to spending. Not sure how much money is out there.

One thing, the recession is not over for those still or about to be unemployed.

Richard

Glad to hear that.  Now we can focus on health care reform....wait that is the focus!  Sure, recession is over...and I have so many buyers I have to have them take a number!  Sarcasm sometimes gets the best of me!

Jim, I've been hearing them too.

Of course in Michigan it is a huge joke, our unemployment rate just went up again.

Reminders me of NAR in the previous years.

Believe everything you read, isn't that how the saying goes?  I'm sure they've got it right this time.

Acai Force Max

The thing that you have to keep in mind about recessions is that that they aren't measured in real time. Since it is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of economic retraction - they can't tell us we're in one until well after it has started.   Over the years, some recessions have ended and turned around before "they" declared that we had been in one.   This one, has lasted long enough, unfortunately, that we stayed in it after it was declared.

The DJIA hitting 10K again is really good news!  It does not mean that today, October 15th, is going to be the beginning of a boom or that everyone will have a job tomorrow or that every Realtor on Active Rain is going to have a closing next week. 

It simply means that some of the large investors are beginning to feel confident enough to buy back some of the equity that they sold off over the last couple of years.    The DOW will not shoot straight up from here. It will drop again, maybe down to 9000, then it will bounce up and so on and so on.  It is only one indicator.  It's an early indicator of improvement - but historically it's a reliable one.

The other thing is that employment ALWAYS is the last thing to recover after  recession.   The reason is exactly the same as in this A/R thread.  It's normal for us to be a little hesitant to believe that things are going to be better soon.  It's the same with companies who can add to the payroll.  They aren't convinced that it's better.   They will be convinced at some point - and they will hire.   It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.  When companies believe that business will pick up, they will hire folks.  When they hire folks, those people will spend their paychecks and other companies will hire more folks - and on and on.

You also have to keep in mind in regards to unemployment t hat the rate of layoffs and downsizing has slowed tremendously.  While that doesn't make it any better for the people without jobs - that is a GREAT sign of impending recovery and hope for the future.  In science, whether it's physical science or the study of economics, things don't fall rapidly and then suddenly start to rise - first the brakes have to come on and the rate of descent slows, then it flattens then it rises.   This will happen.

I, like many of us, haven't had a ton of business this year. It's certainly more busy in the last 60 days (and I don't have any 1st time home buyers).   I am investing money back into my business with some new technology and increasing my marketing. I even bought some new shoes!   The recovery has to start somewhere. 

It may be another 12 - 18 months before our economy really starts to move - but it will.  It always does.

 

 

You are the best Jim... I was just having a conversation with someone about this last night.  It's amazing how Americans are "told" what reality is instead of being able to "think" for themselves.

How about manufacturing some propaganda to make home prices rise?   Maybe a little magic dust.....

I don't get it. Most of the comments about the media being wrong now seem to be the same ones who complained that it was the media reporting that housing sales and prices were dropping like a stone in water that was the problem then. Some can't even write the word media without putting in the adjective liberal.

Well, whatever anyone says, there is still a recession at my house. Maybe like "all real estate is local" the recession is now that way too. I did stick a few of my last dollars in the stock market when the graph in USA Today says we hit bottom. I did sell a home recently to someone who rode the bubble and sold their last home. They paid cash. So, it may be true.

Happy Days are Here Again!

Sorry, Jim.

I didn't play that youtube link all the way thru before I posted it. I didn't mean to inject more politics to your post. The song was written in 1930 and everyone knows we were still deep in a depression back then. If Active Rain allows you to delete my link or comment, please do.

 

Jim:

I also remember Greenspan and Bernake saying things were "contained" when it came to mortgage problems early on. It would not "spread" to the broader economy. I recall thinking about basic human needs of food, clothing, and--wait what was the other one again? Oh yes, shelter. It must be kind of important to individuals and the economy as a whole. So many people are linked to the housing industry. How could it not spread? Seems it did.

 

 

Jim - Many respected economists feel that it is very hard to judge the start and end of a recession, but like you said, there are many signs that the economy is recovery because of rising stock & oil prices as well as higher revenues for many companies. I guess only time will tell - but I'm optimistic!

Thanks for making me laugh. Apparently a recession only counts if Wall Street is suffering.

Ouch. The truth hurts, does it not? At least we got to see a tv commentator or two smile yesterday...I guess they couldn't see my jaw hitting the floor over their 'irrational exuberance'!

Jim- Only one comment on the dollar, To me the most important indicator - Oil is rising because of the weak dollar....not any real or imagined recovery....and since when is expensive oil good for our recovery? Wasn't $100.00 / barrel oil the straw that finally broke our back last time??????

Hi Jim.  I too am a little skeptical.

What is Lawrence Yun saying on the subject???

:)

Thanks for writing,

Ken

Well I am still waiting to officilaly get that memo

I've heard we are in a W shaped recovery instead of a V shaped recovery. We're still in for a rough ride. Happy talk won't fix that.

Yippeee !

... all is well again for us all !!!!

lol !

Recovery?!?  False gains in the market are very misleading!!!  Chase posting profits??!!  How about you give the taxpayer's their money back and then let's talk about profits!!!

Recession over? That's nonsense.

Jim:  It's not like you to be negative...  The way I see it, there may still be a few cold days left, after the back of winter is broken, but that very day, each winter, when you know the worst is over... it gives hope of the spring season to come... At least for me.  So let them report the end of the recession.   

Even if there will still be some lingering snowfall in the form of employment reports and such.    

The back of the Great Recession IS broken.  And that gives me hope. 

Spin doctors unite! I truly believe that the media thinks they are a giant puppetmaster and sadly the uninformed public at large just takes it and swallows it like those who are locked inside a psych ward in line for their little cups of meds and water.

When "our side" (US Gov't, NAR, etc) provides info like this it is called Good News; when anyone else provides info like this it is called PROPAGANDA.

I don't buy it for one minute... especially given we have just come out of the worst quarter for foreclosures in history and there are many more on the horizon. 

I wish I could believe the news but, unfortunately, I don't.  There are too many jobless, too many short sales still on the market and too few buyers willing to pay even current value because they believe the market is going to continue to decline.

I don't watch the news and I don't read the newspaper.  Besides, they'll change their tune tomorrow or maybe later today.  Let me know when you see something positive on the news and I'll watch. 

My checkbook will tell me when the recession is over and it's not looking too good.

Who cares that foreclosures are expected to keep rising through 2010. JP Morgan/Chase  is fine and wants your money, Again. I think that after you wrote this post your tongue got stuck to your cheek.

I've always said that the recession will be over when the media says it's over.  So I guess it's over.  YEAH!!!

Jim... unfortunately I feel this is BS.... it's like test, to where you have ten people in a row and whisper something in their ear. When it gets to the end, it's changed and or different. I can't think of the term.  In this case, this is thrown out to the media and the gov't, yet they keep the same message. Just as they said for 2 years, that we weren't close to a recession and poof...  yes, we are now in a recession. Sorry, but I am not an economists or had classes in this area... well, I had 1 in HS and 1 in college, yet this wasn't my focal point... yet I predicted that we were in a slight recession for 2 yrs prior them telling us this just based on common sense facts.  The gov't leaks good news to Wall Street which feeds off of this and investors can make the rally happen in a positive spin because of this news. I won't believe this until spending is up, unemployment is down, and the housing market is moving in a much better direction than now. PS.. in reality, I don't even listen to what was mentioned the other day, because I just don't believe our gov't.  They will tell you what we want to hear, hoping that good news stimulates the economy. To me, this is called artificial stimulation.

WoW someone need to wake up!

"Jobless Recovery"

Jim, This news goes hand-in-hand with NAR's report that we have had 7 months of positive Pending Sales!  Clearly, the housing market is heading back up too.  I 'm not sure how to explain this to all of the sellers in or headed for foreclosures.

I was so excited to see you are attending the Raleigh ReBAR camp...I can't wait to finally meet you!  See you then!

Victoria Oak Bay Realtor Fred Carver 250-598-2963 for Victoria Oak Bay Homes (Re/Max Camosun Oak Bay & Surrounding Area Real Estate)  Crude oil should be dropping, because actual demand is low.  They are speculating on future demand and that is not a reality.

Fernando Herboso Real Estate Maryland, DC and Virginia (Key Realty Group-Foreclosures in Maryland,Rockville MD)  The Stock Market is totally out of sync with he fundamentals.  I read many good articles yesterday that call the stock market a new bubble that has to correct.

Karen Kruschka - Fairfax Prince William Stafford County VA Real Estate Service (Long & Foster America's #1 Privately Owned Real Estate Co.)  I try, but I just had to write this.

Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate  Lenn I wrote this in case most persons missed the memo that it was officially over.  Sounds like they are calling the winner of next years Kentucky Derby prematurely!

Tim Maitski "Video Agent Guy" (HomeAtlanta.com) I don't know where they expect the money to come from for increased consumer spending. People are spending less because they have less.  No more equity in their homes.

Marc Swartz, Broker - Toronto, Ontario Real Estate-Independently Owned/Operated (Royal LePage Your Community Realty, Brokerage (416) 502-2866)  Since we now live in the global economy there is a global effort to control the spin.  The big nations all have a lot to lose.  This will ensure everyone in the world chior will all be singing in the same key!

J. Philip Real Estate LLC Briarcliff Manor, NY  This is beyond positive thinking it's spin.

Catherine "Cathy" Chaudemanche Team - Central Jersey (Metuchen Keller Williams Elite Realty)  These were the same folks that told us there was no bubble, no problem with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, and no recession on the horizon.

Marc Rasmussen - Sarasota FL Real Estate (Michael Saunders and Company)  Marc like Tim Maitski said, "Where are they going to get the money?

I think we can all agree that we have become distrustful of the media.  There are very view I talk to that have any faith in the media or our government for that matter.  I do believe it is all propaganda to lure us back into the market and then they will crash it again stealing more of our money.  I just read this morning that Warren Buffet is decreasing his exposure to stocks and is increasing his investment in bonds.  Apparently he doesn't trust the market either.

Jim - 3rd quarter forclosures at all time high, unemployment at 9.8% (and rising) Glad to hear things are getting better.

What a bunch of doom and gloomers. Whatever the media wants to call it, it's an amazing time to take advantage of "it". (whatever "it" is). Go buys stocks, go buy houses, go buy cars etc. etc. Stuff is on sale, so instead of crying about the doom, go take advantage of it. Go buy up as many homes as you can. I'm looking for more foreclosures for me and my clients. I'm loving this "recession"????  Not in my area.

Anonymous - I like your comment "But the Job market?  It's a slow moving market that has picked up too much speed....It will not change on a dime....it will slow down....stop...and then slowlyyyyyy move in the other direction."

Anonymous 2 - Thanks!

Susie Blackmon-Maggie Valley Waynesville Horse Person/NC Broker/Realtor (Susie Blackmon LLC)  I agree.  Thansk I am looking forward to going also.

Claudette Millette - Metrowest Mass Exclusive Buyer Broker (The Buyers' Counsel) I agree that unemployment is key.  The scary thing is that many are about to run out of their benefits and drop off the rolls.  The real unemployment rates are much higher.

Mark Arlow (Keller Williams - Ogeechee River Group)  Nothing but blue sky's ahead!

Judi Barrett Integrity Real Estate Services, 580-212-5946  I am a firm believer in hope, but when it crosses the line it may be called "Fantasy!"

Tiffany Cloud (HomeSmart Real Estate) They are not quoting any fundamentals because they cannot.

Brian Schulman - Your Lancaster County, PA Real Estate Professional (Coldwell Banker Select Professionals, Lancaster PA)  They are not using any objective measures.  It was amazing in the past few weeks the more disastrous the news, rising unemployment, foreclosures, record bank failures and guess what?  The stock market instead of plunging goes higher.  It has lost all correlation to any objective measures.

Richard Iarossi, Crofton MD Real Estate, Annapolis MD Real Estate (Long and Foster® Real Estate, Inc.)  Richard, it is very interesting to see how many responded to this post, and what they saw, and how they commented.  AR is a great cross section audience.

Millie Legenhausen, CRS, GRI, CIPS, MBA (Home & Hearth Realty)  Personally, I disagree.  I do not think the worse is over.  Commercial defaults which will dwarf sub-prime has yet to occur.  Contracting consumer credit and massive losses of equity will prevent consumers from spending out way out.  I fell we also have to deal with the massive resets in Alt-A loans and no one can get financing to buy the upper end homes.

Brian Brumpton, Boise Idaho Real Estate (Keller Williams Boise)  That is their goal.

Chris Hill (Zabella Homes)  I agree.  Everyone here including myself would like nothing better.  However, the facts are telling a different story than the spin.

Kay Van Kampen, CDPE, Broker, Springfield Missouri Real Estate (RE/MAX Solutions)  It is interesting that foreclosures are still increasing, and unemployment is still rising.   I think that they really have disdain for the average person in the USA.

Laura Gray (RE/MAX Realty Group)  I am also hearing the fiddle play and I am hoping it is not the same fiddle as Nero...while Rome burned.

Brian Madigan LL.B. (Royal LePage Innovators Realty)  How can we ever hope tha things will return to normal when the auto jobs will never return.  80% of cars sold under cash for clunkers were purchased by Americans that purchased foreign cars.  There is no hope for this country.  "BUY AMERICAN!"

Lina Robertson, ozarks-realestate.com, Springfield MO Real Estate For Sale (RE/MAX Solutions)  It is interesting that so many in he media will be out of work ina year from now.  No one is advertising.

Richard Smith Mortgages Home Loans FHA TN GA AL (American Acceptance Mortgage, Inc)  If the DOW drops way below 10K again that hpe will be dashed the same way it did in the 1930's.

Gary Waters -Real estate agent Viera Suntree Melbourne and Rockledge FL (Century 21 Baytree Realty www.moving2brevard.com)  I've never seen the markets this bad.  No buyers.

Missy Caulk-Ann Arbor- Realtor(R)- Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams-Ann Arbor) Like Marie Antoinette "If the people are out of bread adn starving, let them eat cake!"

Kimeenmark Acai Force Max  I don't.

Rick Schwartz (William Raveis Real Estate) I worked on Wall Street, I worked in an economic research library pulling data, and I also worked for US Dept of Treasury.  I know very well how it works.  The data is not sticking to any fundamentals.  The news they are posting is bogus. The big banks are propped up by taxpayer money, and elections are just around the corner.  We are going to have to brace ourselves for the news after elections.   Wait and see the bank closings in the coming months from bad commercial loans.  In GA 25% of the nations bank failures have occured here. 

PS...How can they write off completed projects that are being sold for 30 cents on the dollar.

Debbie Summers - MoveToLakeMary.com or 407-758-1020 (RE/MAX Central - Florida)  I met a very big producing agent yesterday that we've co-oped with over the years.  She mentioned how dead everything is.

Mark Lebkuchner (Dexter Credit Union)  Just a little...

Of course the recession is over for them because our tax dollars go to their pockets.

Gregory Bain (BayShore Agency)  No everything is cool.  Happy days are here again, but it is still a recession in my books.

Joel Prince, Chattanooga Area Realtor® (The Principle Group, Inc)  I have Blogs with videos of Bernake and Greenspan say there were no problems, chances of a recession are slight just a few weeks before the stuff hit the fan.  They lied under an oath to Congress.

Gina Tufano (RE/MAX Select Properties, Inc.) The DC area is really in an isolated bubble as compared with the rest of the nation.  In many areas of the nation it is a total disaster.  There are also areas that are doing OK.  I am optimistic also, but I am also realistic.

Darren Moreno I love it!   "Thanks for making me laugh. Apparently a recession only counts if Wall Street is suffering"

SarahGray Lamm~REALTOR Broker~ 60K Hours of NC Real Estate Experience~ (Allen Tate Realtors Chapel Hill, NC)  The truth only hurts if it is spoken.

Steve Hubbell (EXiT Realty Chesapeake Bay)  Absolutely no one in the news is talking about the real story is that the dollar has collapsed in value.  Most nations do not want to buy our bonds, and want to switch currencies for trading oil etc.  That story is totally scary, and yet no one in our country want to even discuss it.  You think things are bad now?

Ken Tracy Realtor Naperville Illinois Real Estate (Keller Williams Naperville)  Thanks, so am I.

Greater Mortgage Solutions & Valley Hills Realty   me too!

Team Knowles, Springfield Missouri Real Estate, Ozark homes for sale, Nixa (Keller Williams - www.springfieldmissourihomesforsale.com)  My fear is that these out of touch politicians do not stop spending this will be an "L" shaped recovery.  It will be like those ads on TV  "I've fallen and can't get up!"

Jim - When I read your title I got mad and screamed out loud, "What is this guy nuts?"

Then I read your blog and laughed and whispered to myself, "Very clever."

Unfortunately as I thought further about the topic I dang near cried.

It's a sad time in our history...not because of the recession. We've seen worse and dealt with tougher issues. It is sad because of the lack of moral integrity that is flaunted and even touted by our so-called leaders and media outlets that believe the end objectives justify the means to achieve them.

Nice thought provoking blog...thanks,

“Have the courage to say no. Have the courage to face the truth. Do the right thing because it is right. These are the magic keys to living your life with integrity.” – W. Clement Stone

 

 

Sheldon Neal -- That British Agent -- (Bergen County, NJ - RE/MAX Real Estate Limited)  All is well, just don't spend your money too quickly.

Stephen Arnold ~ CRS,GRI,ABR (Gary Call Real Estate)  Half of the banks are posting profits on paper (after all their accounting rules have been changes) and they have filled themselves up wiht government monies.  Give it up!

Aaron Vaughn (StepStone Realty LLC)  I agree.

Lonn Dugan (BIG Marketing Solutions)  I totally disagree.  I am not negative, but informed.  You need to take a drive around the nation and see what is really occuring.  I see commercial real estate here with 80, 90, and 100% vacancies.  The banks are going to have to account for that soon.

Christianne Gordon, REALTOR®, e-PRO CDPE Carson Valley Nevada Real Estate (Northern Nevada Real Estate - RE/MAX Realty Affiliates)  The media must think we are as lame as they are.

Tim and Susan Fennell (Hometown Realty of Duval, Inc.)  If 60% of GDP was real estate...where are the buyers?  Why are home prices still falling?  Why is unemployment still rising?  Why are foreclosures still rising?  Why are delinquencies still rising?  Why are bankruptcy filings increasing?  Why is credit still contracting?

Nicki Pousson (Re/Max Achievers)  I agree.  That is when I will call and end to the recession is that my own finances start to turn around.

Joe Pryor.com Realtor Oklahoma Investment Properties (Red Bud Realty)  Just a little  :)

Marian Goetzinger Crystal Coast Real Estate NC (Pine Knoll Shores Realty 252-422-9000)  There is a God!

Jeff Belonger -- The FHA Expert.com -- FHA Loans -- FHA mortgages - USDA loans (Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc)  I agree.  A am also into truth in media.  Otehrwise it is not news but spin, propaganda or fiction.  When they say "leading economists in the nation"  That is not a credibel source.  NAME THE ECONOMISTS!  It is funny, but there was only one economist that called this entire recession, the media tries to dismiss him.  Roubini  He got it right.

Hi Jim, The Elections are Coming... The Elections are Coming... nuff said.

And... thanks for all your comments.

Dan Haggerty (Keller Williams Realty)  I have.

Peter Di Eduardo (ReMax Properties Unlimited) "Jobless recovery!"  Yes it sounds like an oxymoron.  Sort of like..."Wealthy homeless people"  or better yet "A green coal plant!"

Lake Norman Real Estate ~ Diane Aurit (LKN Realty, LLC)  In Atlanta, the "Pending sales" are not closing, but rather they are accumulating.  Many are lease purchases.

I am looking forward to this event and meeting al my AR friends.  I need to make reservations soon.

sooooooooooooo true!  Does anyone really believe this stuff....with 10% unemployment and higher in many states!  JOBS, jobs, JOBS!!

Dawn Tetro (Power Realty Partners LLC)  A correction is at hand if you sak me.  I've gotten burned more than once when I was buying and others were selling.

Claude Cross Charlotte NC Real Estate (HomesByCross,Inc.)  It must be so...I read it.

Andrew Martin (Keller Williams - Danville)  Personally, I have done much better this year than last.  I have taken advantage of it, and even buying real estate.

Dave Edwards (Keller Williams Realty)  Exactly.  How many of the economists are on the government payroll?

Gary Moulton (Buyer Acquire | Call Capture and Lead Generation)  I totally agree.  It's the lack of character, moral fiber and beliefs...that it is very disheartening!

 

Jim,  sorry if I implied you didn't know how stuff works. Not my intention. 

I don't actually believe, however, that anyone actually understands the economy.

JK Galbraith, one of the most respected Economists of the 20th century, once remarked that The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.  

The media is worse than worthless.  There is no such thing as news reporting anymore. The "newscasts" are just places for the ever-growing population of pundits to argue one side or another.

I guess I'm preaching unsubstantiated Pollyanism, but since no one - absolutely no one, really knows what is going to happen, I have no choice but to plan my actions for the better possible outcome.

History says that it has always gotten better.  If it doesn't get better we will all end up living out Mel Gibson's early post-apocalyptic movies like Mad Max.  If you'll recall, the decay of civilization in those movies was not caused by Nuclear war as in other stories but by a shortage of oil.

It has to get better and I believe that it begins with our individual efforts.  Some folks can't do much right now, other than just survive, but the rest of us must do whatever small things we can.

I am with Andrew Martin on this one.  If I have learned anything, over the past 10 years, investing in real estate, it is that you must be able to adapt & change with the Property Cycle.  Recession/No Recession - the most important thing is to focus on that which you can control.  Otherwise, in my opinion, it is often a serious waste of time and energy. 

There are so many opportunities to make money in the current market environment.  I am not suggesting change is easy but, in order to be successful, in any business, you must be adaptable.  If your old business model is no longer working, due to the fluctuation of the market place, it is your responsibility to shift the business model to suit your new surroundings.  Our business has been required to significantly shift our model multiple times over the past years.  This 'recession' period required more innovation than most but the reward can be that much greater!

Perhaps, it is time for a discussion thread on strategies for creating wealth in the current market?  Perhaps, one already exists?

Thanks for the discussion, Jim!  Clearly, a hot topic!

I had the same exact sentiments as I read the newly released information stating the recession has ended in 79 metro areas. What a joke... if you look at those areas they have, and will most likely be somewhat insulated from the forces that drove the recession.

Good post.

Bill Ladewig Your FHA Guru - FHA and VA Loans Since 1970  The elections are coming.  That is a very true statement.  Just keep voting for change until you get the change you want.

Amanda Wilson (EWM)  10% unemployment, after all it is a jobless recovery.  Now, if real estate was 60% of GDP, and we are in the tank....real estate agents, mortgage officers, loan officers, appraisers,  home inspectors etc...operate at independent sub-contractors are not even counted in the unemployment rolls.  The high commissions we earned and spend on cars, restaurants, marketing, clothes is no longer part of the economy.  So there is an awful lot of collateral damage that no one is willing to talk about.

Rick Schwartz (William Raveis Real Estate)  No offense taken.  I also believe things will eventually get better, but I do not agree that the fever has been broke in this recession.  The state regulators in GA jjust released another announcement today to brace yourself for more bank failures.  They're coming in GA.

Brennan Tomasetti (www.WomenGetWealthy.com)  Maintaining ones wealth through these hard times is also key to surviving and prospering.  I am very grateful to God, I made many right moves, and basically I am still financially in tact.  I predicted the change in the market in 2004, and had prepared for this.  I am currently on the sidelines assessing the next steps.

Brad Howell (RE/Max Metro & Capital Creek Development, LLC)  Many areas will do fine.  Atlanta unfortunatley is not.  Being informed and educated on the subject does not make us negative.  Many persons I know that will accuse a person of negativity do not sell real estate.  I do.  I make a good living from it even in this market, we've done better than last year without the overhead.  But I still need to be cautious.

I am always greatful when they have those press releases.  If it were not for them- some of us (especially here in Michigan) wouldn't know that the recession is over.

Hey I tend to be a bit of a skeptic....I'm not sure it's over....YET!!

Patricia/Seacoast NH

This holiday season will be by far the worst.  The reason is credit card debt.  Too many people have had their credit limit slashed, interest rates skyrocket, and the unemployment rates continue to rise.  Not to mention retailers are not stocking items like the used to.  It's going to be dismal.

Jim - I guess the news outlets got on this late. The recession has been over since the Stimulater Package created all those jobs that cost $70,000+ per job while the median family income in the US is in the mid $50,000's. Way to go everybody!

 

JP Lowry

Hey Jim,

Nice Post! That certainly restores my faith in the economy and in Obama's administration!

I heard the difference between a recession and a depression is this:

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job and a depression is when you lose yours!

Hmmmmm.....I'm sure glad the recession is over. God bless the media.....

I wish that was all it took!

Jim, you are so right!  Just wait until the stock market breaks those threads holding it up and CRASHES big time with everyone's 401K's.

Jamie Daws (Town & Country Realty, L.L.C.)  It is a rough job getting the news out, but somebody has to do it.

Patricia Aulson, REALTOR Portsmouth NH Homes-Hampton NH Homes (PRUDENTIAL VERANI REALTY - Portsmouth NH Real Estate ) I feel the same way. I do not think we will hit bottom until at least the 2nd half of next year.

Aaron Hoffman ~ Flat Fee MLS in Florida (ADDvantage Real Estate Network)  I agree.  May of my friends in real estate have had their credit lines, or credit cards revoked, or their rates have been jacked up to 29%.  Merry Christmas, happy holidays, and seasons greetings!

Preferred Financial Funding, Inc -- FHA & VA SPECIALIST --  I think that stimulus package was just a political pay off.  We were guareenteed unemplyment would not rise..it did.  Foreclosures rose etc.  They really lied to all of us since they knew all along it was that bad.

Greg Adams, CDPE, Broker Associate, DRE #01298081 (Re/Max Gold)  I really wish the story was true, but my eyes tell me it isn't true.  I know loads of persosn about to lose their homes, their jobs, and I know many real estate associates that have lost everything.

Cassi @ Knightyme Video Tours (Knightyme Video Tours)  You and me both!

Linda Mayer DRE License 01767321 (Triple Diamond Group)  I think this stock market run will go down in history as the biggest "Dead cat Bounce in History!"  Historically, it will be referred to as a "Giant sucker rally!"  It is designed to get persons to buy, while others are selling their worthless stock!  Do you really think banks stocks are making a comeback, or that they are safe to invest in?

Even if the recession is over times will be different. As a country we must be more cautious and as a people I think we will be less frivolent. Christmas is only a couple of months away and I bet the retail numbers will be down again. So yes it is nice to think it is over, but I hope we will all give more thought to our futures.

The recession is far from over. When the jobs come back that will prove the recession is over. The problem is many of the jobs will never come back. IE the auto industry.

The recession is far from over. When the jobs come back that will prove the recession is over. The problem is many of the jobs will never come back. IE the auto industry.

The recession is far from over. When the jobs come back that will prove the recession is over. The problem is many of the jobs will never come back. IE the auto industry.

Jim:

It's just more  mumbo jumbo compliments of our news media.  They want us to think it is over.  The dollar is not the preferred currency.  Storm clouds are on the horizon and we are going to emerge from this recession as a very different nation with a much different place in this world. 

Oh yea...and the # of foreclosures is suppose to rise dramatically over the next few years with the potential for 30-50% of all mortgages to be underwater -- but if we just think happy thoughts and the Dow stays about 10K -- life will be just peachy!

The stock market is a leading indicator typically 6-9 months forcasting while consumer confidence and unemployment are lagging indicators. Do you want your glass half full or half empty?

Corinne Guest. Barrington IL Real Estate - Broker - Listing Agent - Luxury Homes (Royal Advocate Realty-Realtor-REO-Short Sales )...If we do not change our ways we are doomed to repeat it.

Richard Lecinski (Long Realty Company)  NAFTA and world trade will never allow the jobs to come back.  The bosses in the unions sold out the membership for political favors.  For their taste of power...they screwed their members and the USA.

Carol Pease, ABR, CRS, CRB, (512) 721-6320 ( Keller Wiliams Realty)  Watch the dollar over the next few months.  A lot will happen.

Chris Olsen Broker Owner Cleveland Ohio Real Estate (Olsen Ziegler Realty)  It just doesn't get any better than this.

France and Mark Clausen (Stanberry & Associates)  My glass is more than half full and there are no drugs in it either.

Hi Jim!  I'm going with the fact that we lag, by about 6 months, the DOW!  I'm okay with that--I hope everyone can just hang on for another 6-12 months!!

Love the post!  I'm still smiling as I write this--clever, very clever!

Jim, 25% of Florida mortgages are behind or in foreclosure and 11% of residents are still unemployed.

Debe Maxwell, Realtor® Let's Talk CHARLOTTE! (Helen Adams Realty)  Glad you enjoyed.

Wendy Rulnick "Its Wendy!" Destin Short Sales (Rulnick Realty, Inc.)  Is that scary or what?

Hi Jim...The economists have been saying all along that the jobless rate would keep declining even after recovery begins.  Businesses are certainly going to be reluctant to hire until they are sure they will be able to sustain the cost.

Some areas of the country were hit harder than others and the recovery there may well take longer to begin. 

I'm sure we are in the beginning stages of one right now but I'm not sure that we are not. 

Kate

 

Kathleen "Kate" Elim LAKE ANNA, VA Real Estate (RE/MAX Edge)  The scary thing is that we have been dealing with the sup-prime fall out right now.  Commercial real estate will dwarf the issues we have currently been dealing with, and will place a lot more pressure on the financial institutions and local banks that lent to them.

I find it kind of funny that the BEA went back and "started" the recession a few quarters before there were two quarters of contractions... and now they are "ending" it before there is even a single quarter of expansion. 

Jim, my sentiments were the same as Missy's as I was reading this post - reminds me of the NAR predictions about the rosy outlook for the housing industry. Time will tell.

Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy (Diamond Dwellings Realty)  Nothing seems to make sense anymore.  They should have 6 months of solid growth in one direction.  I've not seen it.  Other than a trillion taxpayer dollars pumped into the kitty of the "big boy banks." 

We can't count that trillion dollars because it is all credit!

Look at all the responses!  We have a long way to go before we are out of the woods. 

Sharon Parisi, MLA, ABR, GRI, SRES, HHS (Keller Williams Realty)  I agree Sharon.  This Blog post represents a very good cross section of American and Canadians from all sections of the country.  I believe their word more than I believe the 'spin-masters!'

Thanks Jim -- I was wondering when we'd have the "offical" ruling.   Now just waiting for them to tell us we have a Swine Flu epidemic. 

Geez . . .

Yes! Great news about the economy. I saw the DJIA hit 10K and I was a happy man. It can only get better from here.

Carla Muss-Jacobs, ABR, CEBA, e-PRO, Realtor (Principal Broker/Owner EBA Portland, LLC)  Yes and i tis offical also that it si safe to come out after Y2K

Seattle, Bellevue, Kirkland Real Estate, Freddy Delgadillo with Realty Executives (Realty Executives Brio)  Only....

Neither the politicians, economists or news media will be defining my world.  I am listening to what my clients say and it is not Happy Days are Here Again.  Like the classic line in the Wizard of Oz, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Linda Metallo, Re/max Impact, Lockport, Il.

Jim, this has been a great post with so many great responses!!  I too am very concerned about the direction this country is headed and our currency.  I can't help feel that the country we once knew is being dismantled.  I also get a sense of the proverbial calm before the storm.  I think we must investigate, inform and be prepared.

Linda Metallo (Re/max Impact)  And I trust your comments and the views of your clients with higher regard than these so called experts.

Dawn Tetro (Power Realty Partners LLC)  I agree.  They are not putting out any real facts...we must do our own research.

Depends on what media you listen or read and which political party your for. The government is designed to keep 50% positive and 50% negative. That is the two party system and we all follow along like sheep to slaughter. Divided we fall or in Americas case just sit still and watch. Join TOTT today TAKE OUT THE TRASH starting in you home town, all incumbents good or bad have to voted out to show we want our country back.

Joyce Kelley Realtors® Pensacola/ Gulf Breeze Homes (Charles Stallions Real Estate Services Inc)  I think that is a smart idea.  Take out the trash would be a great start.