New home sales statistics are bogus. I know a lot of you do not like to hear numbers because it upsets your day, but in not hearing the truth, or hearing the wrong numbers does it ever upset you? Last week I had started to write a Blog, but with all the errors on ActiveRain, the idea was lost until I thought about it again today. There was an interview on CNBC with Bob Toll of Toll Brothers Builders at the Bank of America Builders Conference last week. He was very disturbed at the Commerce Dept. news that new home sales had picked up, but when he looked at the numbers they were all wrong. He personally called up the Commerce Department to question the numbers, and asked them if they had included cancellations of new homes contract...they replied "No!" They never include them. His comment was you should because our cancellations are running much higher than the normal 4-7% and have been holding at over 30%. 30% is a major mis-statement and overstatement of sales numbers. Some would call it a lie! It is interesting that a major builder gets it, and the government wants to spin a different picture.
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Jim, That should be no surprise, the government always wants to put (I will call it) a deceitful spin on things. 99 times of 100 they simply move the target to manipulate the data. One of the biggest problems is they do not adjust for other market factors, so even when times are good, the numbers are not accurate. I think it boils down to cowardice and not wanting to admit that sometimes policy would have anything to do with a poor economy. It is best to get the data fresh. Knowing where to get it is the most important thing....I like the following:
Great post, as always!
Bo Hussung ~ Cogent Closing Associates, LLC (Cogent Closing Associates) Thanks...I worked for the Government...it is definitley a Spin Zone!
Jim": I remember reading that article about Toll Brothers. It had me scratching my head. I'm glad the "spin stopped here". Thanks.
Jim really good point. Like counting sales from a company when they are just trying out a product not purchasing it.
Thanks,
We can plan accordingly!
Jan Wood, Realtor (R) - Nashville TN Real Estate (RE/MAX ELITE) It is interesting, I started to write that Blog and got an error and stopped. I think it is news worthy for our business.
John Walters (Specialized Real Estate) In Atlanta, a lof of companies are placing out "Under Contract" signs, but they are really contingenct contracts. It is easy to imaging at least 30% not being able to procede in this slow market.
James Graner (Residential Services Real Estate Appraisals) So much is happening in such a short time!
Jim, Holy Smokes!!! It doesn't come to much of a surprise to me. Too often "THINGS" are overlooked or twisted.
Well, after all, it's an election year. And the Commerce Department metrics affect what happens on Wall Street. So it stands to reason that they'd want to cook the books a little..
Ray Nellum, Fort Smith Real Estate (Ramona Roberts Realtors) 30% is a big number to overlook when you are talking about overstating national sales numbers.
Wayzata Lakes Realty: Eric Kodner Sells Luxury Homes No one can forget about election year! I'd love to vote them all out of office!