Good news or bad News? I guess I am almost numb to believing any more housing news or stats anymore. Positive stats are retracted and adjusted in a month or so and end up being revised with numbers on the other end of the scale. One side of the stats tell us sales are up, but prices are dropping. Where is the good news? The word "Spin" comes to mind, but a math tally does not carry the same weight with me any longer. The newspapers, media and NAR seem to be more interested in playing the numbers for their own advantage. Today's NAR numbers seem no different. I find it hard to believe that in the few markets I have first hand knowledge I am seeing double digit drops in home sales, and certainly not even marginal increases that are not coupled to some incredible shifts in price drops. I recently wrote a few Atlanta real estate blogs based on our most recent sales statistics that were just released Friday August 22 Atlanta Home Sales Decline July 2008 that did not show any increase of sales in our FMLS Atlanta home sales drop! In fact over last year they dropped quite a bit 39% from the market peaks, and now prices are dropping also!
So how is your market fairing? Are sales rising, prices holding or increasing? I've already shared my stats!
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Jim
Many markets have stabilized and are slowing sales increases, Price will adjust to were both seller and buyers see value in the pricing and the markets.
Good luck and success
Lou Ludwig
Numbers can be interesting. I see the average prices rising as the low end buyers are taken out of the market. This is the area I see the most trouble developing. Atlanta is more of a Corp. City which tells us more about jobs for the future. Unless you have job growth you will not have a housing recovery. Printing money will not help anyone. You had better be glad we have off shore drilling in Louisiana so you can stay warm this winter.
I think that Lou is correct. However with the changes regarding seller funded down payment assistance I'm focusing on long term rentals on everything under $150k and only flipping properites above this price range.
We are having our most outstanding year ever...gotta just roll with it....we have been to short sale school...over and over....and have just double popped a commercial short sale....price to sell, not to sit....promote creatively....and have fun !
Jim - Louisville sales are down 20-30% depending on the area and, in general, prices are off slightly (1-3%). In my primary territory just south of Louisville, we are about 25% below last year in sales. Month-over-month SP averages vary widely due to the low number of homes that are sold, but the general trend matches Louisville.
Jim,
I think everyone feels the same. The roller-coater ride is getting old. I wonder if the public or even agents would know what to do it the NAR lost it always rosy outlook on the market.
In our area, there have been an increase in home sales, but they are the smaller priced homes and most of them are the reo's bought up by first time homebuyers or investors. So, in that respect, I don't think the numbers are being realistic just yet. Prices in the upper range are still dropping and sales are sluggish.
Here in Long Island, NY area, sales in units was slightly increased in July 08 comparing to 07.
Median Price on closed properties dropped comparing to July last year.
...................2008..........2007
Queens...$399,900...$472,000
Nassau...$458,500...$495,000
Suffolk...$389,000...$405,000
................Inventory ...............Units in contract .......................Months Supply
................07/08....07/07........07/08....06/08......07/07
Queens....11510.....10774...........765........752..........772..............15
Nassau....10877.....10415...........963........889.........1012.............11.3
Suffolk....15186.....14996...........964........1041........1167............15.8
Source: Long Island Board of Realtors
Hi Jim~
It's not doing much here in Bend, Oregon. Prices are still coming down, lots of short sales. A few more buyers according to MLS but not hearing it from the MANY realtors I talk with. Hard to know what's really happening these days. Nice to see you : )
Lou Ludwig (Ludwig & Associates) Price is a meeting of the minds!
Eric Bouler (Prudential Gardner) I think that is part of the problem in Atlanta. Quality jobs are not being created, service sector jobs have. The problem is they are half of the high end jobs, and typically only pay 35-45K a year.
Justin Ukaoma (The Vizion Group) Sounds like you are making the best of your market! Way to go!
Sally & David Hanson, Southeastern Wisconsin Realtors (First Weber Group) Way to go!
Erik Hitzelberger, --Louisville-Bullitt County Real Estate (RE/MAX Alliance) What is interesting is what fundimentals have changed. In our market the upper end is now suffering - no financing available!
Kin Tsui (Kin Real Estate) Very interesting, your market seems to be holding up well in the sense that units have not really dropped that much!
Bend Oregon REALTOR ® Kelli Fronabarger (Bend River Realty Inc.) Most Realtors are too afraid to speak the truth! They will tell you things are going great, and they will be out of business in a few months.
Jim,
The sales numbers showing an increase may have been somewhat skewed by the large numbers of foreclosures being purchased at bargain prices. That factor must at some point effect prices, as well as the reduced number of buyers.
The other number released shows an increase in inventory of existing unsold homes. The highest since the records were kept. The national figures reported over an 11 month supply, also a record.
I believe the sales figures, I am just not sure that the sales increase is exactly good news yet.
Richard
Richard Smith Mortgages Home Loans FHA TN GA AL (American Acceptance Mortgage, Inc) I think you are right, and that we may be hearing selective statistics. It is like the line... "The fever has broken, the bad news is the patient has died."
The Slidell are just North of New Orleans has dropped. Sellers are being stubborn, they aren't caving for the most part.
Here in rural Penna (the Coal Region) we saw an INCREASE in average/median prices over 2007 but a 20% decline in number of units and total dollars sold.
I don't believe the NAR stats and personally am so sick of the headlines. New construction starts down! Foreclosures up! Home sales up! Prices down!
All real estate is local. I am sure what they're seeing in the cities (Philly or Pittsburgh) even in my own state does not mirror what we have here in rural PA.
John Walters (Specialized Real Estate) Sellers are being unreasonable in most markets. Those that are opening up their eyes, and acting are moving forward.
Realty Executives - Erica Ramus - 570 622 6006 - Schuylkill You mentioned a very good point that units sold are down, and price is down. That is an indicator of future sales.
Jim, our sales in the Nashville area are down approximately 30% from 2007 according to our local association. And we are down another approximately 28% from 2006 to 2007.
Nashville Tennessee Area Real Estate Rhonda Burgess (Realty World Southern Living) Nowhere can I find what area sales in the country where the sales actually incresed in the report. No one here has actually commented that sales have risen, and where they have...priced have dropped. I read a story last night that described Atlanta as one of the worse markets in the nation...gee whiz!
Jim I love your signature...where did you get that?
Allison Stewart REALTOR ®St. Cloud Florida (Florida Pines Realty, Inc) I searched online for create free animated signatures. It was a while ago, and I did not save the site. Sorry.