The most recent statistics for Atlanta homes sales were just released the other day. They are issued on the 20th of the month for the previous months sales*. The numbers for sold homes in the Atlanta area are not good. I have created a chart to show you November 2008 sales for Atlanta homes (single family detached homes) in our FMLS that were sold in November...and compared those sales to previous Novembers. The results are not not good. There term "Atlanta" applies to all homes in the system in our Atlanta FMLS and in the Allanta Metro area and not limited to homes in just the city of Atlanta. On this blog, the focus is just on units of single family detached homes that were sold in the region in November 2008. It is a great drop in sales form previous years. FYI - I will do more blogs on price, and other Atlanta homes statistics in the days to come. (*FMLS - Source)
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Hey, great post. Thanks for the information about your area.
Charlotte Real Estate Agent Brian Belcher (RE/MAX Metro Realty) Anytime.
Jim one would think they would at least start leveling off soon.
John Walters (7824 Real Estate of Louisiana) I have been doing this for a while, and I have mixed feelings on what is occuring this time.
At least you are still in the bidness and a lot of your competitors are gone.
Our Board's Nov sales report just came out as well. It showed Nov down, but not nearly as much as your area. How are you doing for the year?
Gene Allen Realtor Hampton Roads Real Estate (Resh Realty Group) The competition has gone to other cheaper companies.
Elaine Reese, REALTOR® in central Ohio (Real Living HER, Worthington Ohio) Our business is off over 50%. The good news is we are still making a profit right now.
Jim, Thats a pretty steady drop. Not for the faint of heart...
Paul Henderson (RE/MAX Professionals) The other statistics I will post are not good either.
The drop in sales from 2005 is dramatic, but keep in mind that 2005/06 was the ALL TIME HIGH for Real Estate sales in both Atlanta and the U.S. as a whole. This correction was badly needed and will return things to a healthy long term rate of sales/building growth.
Atlanta may be one of the first major markets to have price stabilization because of 4 key factors:
1. Atlanta's price drops are quickly bringing the avergage sales price back to 2001/02 levels and in line with the steady, long-term, 3-4% appreciation rate that Atlanta experienced for 20+ years.
2. Rental unit occupancy rate has spiked in the last 18 months and so have rents... With rapidly adjusting home prices and 30-year fixed rate mortgages below 5% the Rent-to-Mortgage Payment spread is narrowing quickly.
3. People are moving to Atlanta (and the Southeast) at an accelerating rate. The Atlanta metro area has one of the highest in-migration of any major city in the country. Additionally, the largest Freshman/Sophmore class in history is in college right and Atlanta, GA is near the top of many lists as a target destination for young professionals.
4. Yes, sales are down 50% since 2005/06, however, new housing unit starts is down over 80% since the same time period. There will likely be a NEW HOME shortage in Atlanta in Q2/Q3 of 2009 because of this near complete stoppage of production by builders. The first sign of ANY uptick in the market will exacerbate this situtation as "good money" rushes in to buy the remaining units as they sense "the bottom" has occurred.
Remember: As unthinkable as it may seem right now... under-supply may become a issue in the not too distant future. Under-supply problems are met with rapid price appreciation because these widgets (homes) take 4-6 months to produce.
The market is challenging and not for the faint of heart right now, but stronger days are ahead. The interesting thing will be watching all the good-money on the sidelines react when the think "the bottom" has occured... Once the talking heads on CNN/Fox/etc... have announced "the bottom" it means that it has already passed by 2-6 months.
Most of us weren't very good at timing "the top" so I'm not sure why we think we're going to be have the ability to time "the bottom!"
Good Luck!
Hello Jim,
Great Graph and good explaination about the sales stats in the Atlanta Area! Looks like you are really up to date with all your information.
In our rural area of Kentucky, the sales have dropped, but prices are still stable overall. I am however watching very closely what the next 6 months to a year brings though, as things could start changing, as the auto industry problems have now started to filter into our area now and could start showing up as sales price declines in the near future and this concerns me deeply, as this area is mostly an ultra conservative area, so when it hits here, it would most likely be nationwide with no place untouched by the property value declines.
Starting to remind me more all the time of the early 80's!
I look forward to watching your blogs on ActiveRain.
Carmen Thanks you for sharing your insights. One problem Atlanta has to get through is the inventory of unsold homes. In residential developed lots we have a 10 year supply. For this time of the year we are still at record highs. The most reasonable priced builder in the Atlanta area KB Homes announce last week they were pulling out. Even the lower priced homes are not selling. We lead the nation with no money down financing - with over 50% of the loans written here in the last few years being 100% loans. That is why we have no buyers today. It also explains why new foreclosures in the Georgia area are 3 X the number of homes sold. Expired listings and withdrawn listings each month exceed sales 3 or 4 to 1! Job creation will be the trick in Atlanta. Yes more people were moving here, but the other side is they cannot find work. They need more high paying jobs here. Job creation is lacking. We have a long way to go until this market recovers.
Ed Justice (Hometown Realty of Kentucky, Inc.) The next 6 months will be critical in many areas as to where this nation is moving in regards to real estate.